Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
