Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
