Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
